The Cuba situation is starting to resemble a pre-conflict playbook
The U.S. pressure campaign against Cuba appears to have entered a new phase.
TL;DR
- The U.S. Justice Department unsealed an indictment against former Cuban President Raul Castro, accusing him of murder for a 1996 military shootdown of two planes.
- This move is part of a broader U.S. effort to achieve regime change in Cuba, involving tightened economic sanctions and an oil blockade.
- The measures have led to a worsening economic crisis in Cuba, with the country reportedly running out of oil and diesel.
- Some Cuban officials have warned of a possible U.S. military intervention, while reports suggest Cuba is building military drones and the U.S. is conducting intelligence flights.
- Experts are divided on the U.S. endgame, with some suggesting the focus is on economic pressure for regime change, while others highlight the potential for severe instability due to the humanitarian crisis.
- U.S. officials state Cuba poses a national security threat, a claim denied by Cuban officials who dismiss the indictment as a political maneuver.
- The U.S. interest in Cuba is described as a regime aligned with U.S. security priorities and opposed to rival influence.