How accurate are Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day predictions? Here's how he ranks in 2026

February 1, 2026

TL;DR

Punxsutawney Phil's weather predictions have a historically spotty track record.
Since 1887, Phil has been accurate only about 39% of the time.
In the last decade (2013-2023), Phil's accuracy rate has been around 30%.
Groundhog Day tradition originates from European weather lore, adapted by German settlers in Pennsylvania using groundhogs instead of badgers.
Phil's prediction is based on whether he sees his shadow on February 2nd: shadow means six more weeks of winter, no shadow means an early spring.

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