politics
March 31, 2026
Paxton leads Cornyn in Texas runoff poll
EXCLUSIVE — A new poll commissioned by the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a steady lead over Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the Republican Senate runoff, as the data suggest the incumbent senator’s support remains softer and more vulnerable.

TL;DR
- A poll shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn 47%-42% in the Republican Senate runoff.
- Paxton's supporters exhibit stronger conviction and higher likelihood to vote than Cornyn's.
- Cornyn has a net negative favorability rating (47% favorable, 51% unfavorable) among likely GOP runoff voters.
- Voters respond negatively to criticisms of Cornyn's past stances on gun control, immigration, and 'amnesty'.
- Trump's potential endorsement is unlikely to significantly alter the race, with Paxton leading regardless.
- The electorate is heavily MAGA-aligned (84%) and identifies as strong Republicans (69%).
- Cornyn has institutional advantages like fundraising, while Paxton has grassroots energy.
- CPAC straw poll results also favored Paxton over Cornyn.
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