politics

March 31, 2026

Paxton leads Cornyn in Texas runoff poll

EXCLUSIVE — A new poll commissioned by the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a steady lead over Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the Republican Senate runoff, as the data suggest the incumbent senator’s support remains softer and more vulnerable.

Paxton leads Cornyn in Texas runoff poll

TL;DR

  • A poll shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn 47%-42% in the Republican Senate runoff.
  • Paxton's supporters exhibit stronger conviction and higher likelihood to vote than Cornyn's.
  • Cornyn has a net negative favorability rating (47% favorable, 51% unfavorable) among likely GOP runoff voters.
  • Voters respond negatively to criticisms of Cornyn's past stances on gun control, immigration, and 'amnesty'.
  • Trump's potential endorsement is unlikely to significantly alter the race, with Paxton leading regardless.
  • The electorate is heavily MAGA-aligned (84%) and identifies as strong Republicans (69%).
  • Cornyn has institutional advantages like fundraising, while Paxton has grassroots energy.
  • CPAC straw poll results also favored Paxton over Cornyn.

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