The degree is the divide
When midterm votes are counted on Nov. 3, few lines in the exit polls will have moved as far in 20 years as the one drawn by a four-year degree. In 2004, voters with a bachelor’s degree split evenly between Bush and Kerry, while voters without one favored Bush by 6 points. In 2024, the two groups were 27 points apart. The parties did not discover that divide. It was manufactured over the course of 60 years by the institutions that made the degree the price of admission to respectable adult life, and whichever party wins on Nov. 3 inherits it intact.
TL;DR
- The political divide between voters with and without a four-year degree has widened significantly over the past 20 years.
- In 2004, voters with bachelor's degrees split evenly between Bush and Kerry, while those without favored Bush by 6 points; by 2024, the gap is projected to be 27 points.
- Pew data shows a shift from 1994, when degree holders favored Republicans, to 2023, when they were 19 points apart and the sign had reversed.
- Midterm exit polls illustrate this growing gap, moving from roughly zero in 2006 and 2010 to 22 points in 2022.
- The article suggests this divide was manufactured over 60 years by institutions linking degrees to respectable adult life.