economy
January 26, 2026
AI spending wasn't the biggest engine of U.S. economic growth in 2025, despite popular assumptions
The GDP value of AI is smaller than it might appear given that a lot of high-tech equipment is imported, according to a recent MRB Partners report.
TL;DR
- The popular narrative that AI is the sole engine of the U.S. economy is likely overstated.
- Consumer spending was the most crucial driver of U.S. GDP growth in the past year, with AI-related capital expenditures being the second biggest driver.
- AI's contribution to GDP growth is smaller than often assumed, especially after adjusting for imported high-tech equipment.
- Adjusted for imports, AI-related investments contributed an estimated 40-50 basis points to real GDP growth between Q1 and Q3 2025.
- Investments in software and computers were AI's most important contributions to GDP growth in 2025, not just data centers.
- Even without the AI boom, U.S. GDP growth would have remained decent due to solid personal consumption.
- Categories linked to AI spending accounted for only 15% of quarterly GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 2025, and less than 5% of overall GDP.
- Resilient consumer spending is expected to continue supporting economic growth in 2026.
- Future economic growth is anticipated to be supported by AI investments, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a stabilized unemployment rate.
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