economy

December 31, 2025

10-year Treasury yield closes out 2025 lower for year, but rises on final day

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved higher on Wednesday, yet ended 2025 lower amid Federal Reserve rate cuts and sticky-but-trending-lower inflation.

10-year Treasury yield closes out 2025 lower for year, but rises on final day

TL;DR

  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose mid-week but finished 2025 lower.
  • Initial jobless claims fell to 199,000 for the week ended December 27, below economists' estimates.
  • This jobless claims report led to a reversal and increase in Treasury yields.
  • The labor market showed strength, with no signs of an impending recession.
  • The Trump economic agenda has not negatively impacted the economy as some predicted.
  • The bond market experienced volatility in 2025 due to trade policy uncertainty and Fed interest rate decisions.
  • The Federal Reserve released minutes from its December meeting, showing a divided decision on lowering interest rates.
  • Traders increased bets on another Fed rate cut in April.

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