economy
February 10, 2026
The stock market needs a Goldilocks jobs report Wednesday. Here are the scenarios
The market's comeback faces its first major test this week with the release of January's jobs report.
TL;DR
- The stock market's recent rally faces a critical test with the release of the January jobs report.
- JPMorgan has detailed potential S&P 500 movements based on different job growth outcomes.
- The most likely scenario involves 60,000-90,000 jobs added, predicting a 0.25%-0.75% rise in the S&P 500.
- A 'too hot' report could raise yields and hurt stocks, while a 'too cool' report might signal the Fed delaying easing.
- Economist Michael Feroli forecasts 75,000 jobs added and a steady 4.4% unemployment rate.
- Recent data, including ADP and job openings, suggests increasing labor market weakness.
- Layoffs reached their highest January total since 2009.
- JPMorgan's trading desk is 'tactically bullish' but anticipates continued rotation and broadening in the market.
- The options market is pricing in approximately a 1.2% move on February 11th.
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