Cubans study oil tanker diplomacy for signs of progress in secret talks with US

April 4, 2026

TL;DR

A sanctioned Russian oil tanker delivered 700,000 barrels of crude to Cuba, seemingly bypassing US President Trump's oil blockade.
Cuba released 2,010 prisoners, framed as a humanitarian gesture, but observers link it to ongoing negotiations with the US.
The Cuban economy is struggling, with tourism dead, most petrol stations closed, and daily blackouts.
There is speculation that the oil shipment and prisoner release are reciprocal gestures of goodwill between the US and Cuba.
Cuba's economy is shifting towards private businesses (Mipymes), creating a wealthy class, some with ties to the regime.
Sandro Castro, Fidel's grandson and a businessman, expressed a desire for capitalism and criticized the current president, indicating a potential loosening of political discourse.
A possible route forward involves Cuba's economy opening up to the US while senior regime members, including Castros, retain power.
Concerns exist for the 40% of Cubans not in the private sector or receiving money from relatives abroad, who may face severe hardship.

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