economy
March 12, 2026
If oil price shocks weren’t bad enough, Trump’s war could have other unintended consequences
China consumes around 90% of Iran’s oil exports, so could be forced to rely on alternative suppliers – particularly Russia
TL;DR
- The war against Iran has led to significant price swings in crude oil, with Brent Crude topping $100 per barrel.
- The Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy choke point, is facing potential disruption, which will impact household bills globally.
- China's increased reliance on Gulf oil, consuming 90% of Iran's exports, makes it vulnerable to conflict in the region.
- Disruptions in the Gulf could force China to increase its reliance on Russia, strengthening their energy partnership.
- The Gulf is a major supplier of refined products, petrochemicals, and fertilizers, impacting global manufacturing, agriculture, and potentially food prices.
- The war underscores the global economy's continued dependence on fossil fuels and the vital need for energy transition.
- Global disruptions disproportionately affect vulnerable societies, leading to increased inequality and potential hunger.
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