economy

January 8, 2026

How the stock market may react to the December jobs report, according to JPMorgan traders

The JPMorgan trading desk expects that December's jobs data will match or come in slightly stronger than the consensus estimate.

How the stock market may react to the December jobs report, according to JPMorgan traders

TL;DR

  • JPMorgan traders anticipate a small stock market gain after the December jobs report.
  • The report will detail unemployment rate, job gains, and wage growth for December.
  • The data could influence the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision.
  • Economists expect 54,000 jobs added and a 4.5% unemployment rate.
  • JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist forecasts 75,000 jobs added and a 4.6% unemployment rate.
  • JPMorgan notes a rising trend in the NFIB Small Business Survey's Hiring Sub-index.
  • Various scenarios for job growth and their potential impact on the S&P 500 are outlined with probabilities.

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