Restaurant stocks are struggling to start 2026. Where to find buying opportunities
Restaurant stocks struggling this year as the industry weathers inflation, uneven economic growth and the proliferation of weight-loss drugs through society.
TL;DR
- The S&P 500 Hotels, Restaurants and Leisure industry is down around 4% in 2026.
- Delivery giant DoorDash, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and Wendy's have seen significant stock declines.
- Darden Restaurants and McDonald's have bucked the trend with stock gains.
- The proliferation of weight-loss drugs (GLP-1) is leading to an 8% short-term decline in food-away-from-home spending.
- Quick-service and fast-casual restaurants are most threatened by GLP-1 adoption.
- Restaurant chains are introducing high-protein and more beverage options in response to declining calorie consumption.
- Full-service and casual dining businesses are less exposed to the GLP-1 narrative.
- A worsening labor market, with falling payrolls and rising unemployment, adds volatility, particularly affecting fast-casual restaurants.
- Fast-casual and quick-service restaurants have a larger share of young consumers, who are more sensitive to job market changes.
- Citi analyst Jon Tower is bullish on McDonald's, Chipotle, Cheesecake Factory, Darden Restaurants, and Brinker International.