economy
March 15, 2026
Restaurant stocks are struggling to start 2026. Where to find buying opportunities
Restaurant stocks struggling this year as the industry weathers inflation, uneven economic growth and the proliferation of weight-loss drugs through society.
TL;DR
- The S&P 500 Hotels, Restaurants and Leisure industry is down around 4% in 2026.
- Delivery giant DoorDash, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and Wendy's have seen significant stock declines.
- Darden Restaurants and McDonald's have bucked the trend with stock gains.
- The proliferation of weight-loss drugs (GLP-1) is leading to an 8% short-term decline in food-away-from-home spending.
- Quick-service and fast-casual restaurants are most threatened by GLP-1 adoption.
- Restaurant chains are introducing high-protein and more beverage options in response to declining calorie consumption.
- Full-service and casual dining businesses are less exposed to the GLP-1 narrative.
- A worsening labor market, with falling payrolls and rising unemployment, adds volatility, particularly affecting fast-casual restaurants.
- Fast-casual and quick-service restaurants have a larger share of young consumers, who are more sensitive to job market changes.
- Citi analyst Jon Tower is bullish on McDonald's, Chipotle, Cheesecake Factory, Darden Restaurants, and Brinker International.
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