How high can oil and gas prices go because of the Iran war? Here are the scenarios

March 2, 2026

TL;DR

The U.S. war with Iran has created a worst-case scenario for the global oil market, risking prolonged supply disruptions.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has halted, impacting about a third of the world's seaborne oil exports.
Qatar has shut down LNG production after drone strikes on key facilities, affecting about 20% of global LNG exports.
Crude oil prices surged over 12%, and European natural gas futures soared over 40%.
Potential price scenarios include Brent crude above $100 per barrel and European natural gas above 60 euros per megawatt hour if Iran attacks neighboring energy facilities.
A prolonged disruption could spike Brent prices by $40 to $80 per barrel, potentially reaching $120 per barrel if storage capacity is exhausted.
If Iran enforces a full closure of the Strait, Brent could surge toward $200 per barrel.
A collapse of the Islamic Republic also poses a risk to oil supplies, potentially impacting over 3 million barrels per day.
If hostilities end quickly, oil prices could drop back to $60-$70 per barrel.
Iran's security chief has rejected negotiations with the U.S., stating they will not negotiate.

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