What is El Niño, what causes it and can we reduce the risks?
This year’s ‘godzilla’ climate phenomenon has already broken temperature records. We ask a climate scientist what is happening
TL;DR
- El Niño is a natural climate pattern that affects global weather, typically causing higher temperatures, droughts, and floods.
- This year's El Niño has broken temperature records and could be one of the strongest in a thousand years.
- El Niño events layer on top of human-caused global warming, potentially exacerbating extreme weather conditions.
- Measuring El Niño's strength is complicated by rising baseline ocean temperatures due to climate change.
- The phenomenon is likely to cause wildfires in Indonesia, drought in the Amazon, and impact the Indian monsoon.
- While not directly caused by El Niño, recent heatwaves in the UK, Europe, Canada, and the US are linked to global warming and persistent weather patterns.
- Scientists are investigating whether climate change is making El Niños more frequent and intense, with clearer signals expected in the next decade.
- Improved forecasting allows for preparation, such as advising farmers on crop choices and governments on infrastructure.
- Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the primary response, though geoengineering options are also being explored.
- Future El Niños are expected to have greater impacts, posing significant risks to agriculture and the global economy, particularly for vulnerable populations.