economy
February 11, 2026
The jobs picture still looks muddy, even with surprisingly strong January growth
January job gains were better than anything the U.S. economy saw in 2025 but not still enough to sound an all-clear.
TL;DR
- January saw 130,000 nonfarm payroll gains and a 4.3% unemployment rate, the lowest since August.
- Revisions indicate virtually no job gains in the second half of 2025, with an average of only 15,000 jobs per month for the year.
- Nearly all January job growth was concentrated in health care-related sectors.
- Average hourly earnings saw an annual gain of 3.71%, the lowest since July 2024, raising concerns about consumer spending.
- GDP growth is on pace for a solid 3.7% gain in the fourth quarter, but this is unusual without stronger job gains.
- Federal Reserve policymakers are divided on interest rate cuts, with some prioritizing inflation over employment.
- Market expectations for interest rate cuts in March have decreased to approximately 6%.
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