health

February 25, 2026

Direct-to-consumer sales for obesity drugs are about to boom. JPMorgan sees Eli Lilly as big winner

Thanks to its “best-in-class” status, the bank believes the company will be the winner from a growing GLP-1 patient base.

Direct-to-consumer sales for obesity drugs are about to boom. JPMorgan sees Eli Lilly as big winner

TL;DR

  • JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott predicts Eli Lilly will dominate the GLP-1 market.
  • Eli Lilly's advantage stems from its "best-in-class" status and direct-to-consumer business.
  • The market for weight loss drugs is expected to grow significantly.
  • Around 1.5 million patients used direct-to-consumer channels for drugs in Q4 2025, a figure expected to increase.
  • Schott forecasts around 8 million GLP-1 patients purchasing drugs with cash by 2030, with LillyDirect poised to benefit.
  • Eli Lilly is expected to be a major beneficiary of Medicare coverage for GLP-1s starting in April.
  • Approximately 4.5 million patients on Medicare are expected to use GLP-1s by 2030.

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