The Iran Problem Trump Can’t Defer
A good-enough settlement for the United States may not satisfy its Israeli partners.
TL;DR
- Donald Trump reportedly had a heated exchange with Benjamin Netanyahu, calling him "fucking crazy" for considering strikes on Beirut, which could jeopardize U.S. negotiations with Iran.
- The article suggests that a lasting settlement with Iran is unlikely, with the conflict likely to resume intermittently.
- Iran views negotiations as a phase of confrontation, not an alternative to war, and is prepared for future conflict.
- A narrow deal involving the U.S. lifting its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran allowing ship transit in exchange for economic compensation is possible, but the nuclear issue would be deferred.
- Israel may reluctantly accept a temporary cease-fire but is unwilling to let Iran rearm or be constrained in its fight against Hezbollah.
- The conflict has strategically strengthened Iran, giving it leverage and a deterrent against the U.S., despite military setbacks.