economy
February 12, 2026
What Harvard’s Raj Chetty overlooks about upward mobility
The Harvard economist Raj Chetty, justly famous for his studies of the factors that enable upward mobility in America, is back with a new analysis that has attracted wide attention. Thanks to access to the individual tax records of a million former public housing residents whom his Opportunity Insights team tracked, he determined that a move from “the projects” to a new, mixed-income community led to long-term economic gains for children.
TL;DR
- Raj Chetty's study tracked a million former public housing residents, finding long-term economic gains for children who moved to mixed-income communities.
- The HOPE VI program, which demolished crime-ridden public housing, is seen as a factor in these improvements.
- Children in HOPE VI units earned more, were more likely to attend college, and less likely to be incarcerated compared to counterparts in non-revitalized projects.
- The article questions the sustainability of middle-class integration in mixed-income communities and the scalability of the approach.
- It suggests that individual agency, steady employment, and two-income households are also crucial for upward mobility, independent of government programs.
- Alternative paths to upward mobility, such as owner-occupied homes and neighborhood amenities, are proposed.
- The article implies that the federal government's initial creation of dysfunctional public housing complexes like Robert Taylor Homes is an overlooked aspect.
- Past public housing was once desirable and produced successful residents, indicating that income mix alone is not a guaranteed predictor of success.
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