Why is Putin now talking about the war in Ukraine ‘coming to an end’?
Drone strikes, mounting casualties and a distracted US president means a slow-motion victory is in doubt
TL;DR
- Russia is experiencing a loss of battlefield momentum, with Ukraine regaining territory in key regions.
- Russian casualty rates may be exceeding recruitment and replacement numbers, and a second mobilization is unlikely due to potential social unrest.
- Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian oil export terminals are reducing export volumes, potentially impacting Russia's economy, especially if oil prices fall.
- Ukraine is developing into a missile and drone superpower, increasing its offensive capabilities and even exporting technology.
- Putin may be seeking to re-engage the White House, possibly hoping for a deal involving territorial concessions from Ukraine, despite Russia's maximalist demands.