As Yemen's civil war enters a new phase, what's next for the embattled country?
The Houthis’ lightning offensive in September seized the entire Red Sea coastline, shocking the world and shattering confidence in the capabilities of the forces of the internationally recognized government. However, further Houthi offensives have met stiffer resistance from the recuperated forces of the Presidential Leadership Council, depriving the group of another quick victory.
TL;DR
- The Houthis seized the entire Red Sea coastline in September but have since faced stronger resistance from PLC forces.
- Fighting has shifted to the southwest highlands, focusing on the city of Taiz, which the Houthis are attempting to encircle.
- Saudi Arabia is reportedly planning a massive offensive involving over 100,000 troops to retake the Bab el Mandeb Strait.
- Negotiations are ruled out by Saudi Arabia until the strait is under their control.
- The PLC controls most of Yemen's oil and gas resources in Hadramawt, Shabwa, and Marib, while the Houthis control the capital Sanaa and most of the population.
- Government forces are defending key axes: Bab el-Mandeb, the southwest highlands, and Marib/Shabwa to deny Houthis financing.
- Taiz is considered a critical target for the Houthis due to its strategic location and potential to sever supply lines to Aden.
- The war has entered a new phase with potential for Houthi incursions into Saudi Arabia.
- Recent high-level meetings between UAE and Saudi Arabia, pressured by the US, aim to mend ties and present a united front against the Houthis.
- Both sides believe the war has entered a new phase, with the Houthis adopting a pragmatic approach to achieving their objectives through negotiation or military force.