health
February 4, 2026
Eli Lilly's GLP-1 growth is only getting started as Novo Nordisk braces for a decline in 2026
The split in outlook underscores Lilly's strong position in the obesity market, underpinned by more effective drugs and its direct-to-consumer sales strategy.
TL;DR
- Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are both facing lower prices for their obesity drugs in the U.S.
- Lilly forecasts significant sales growth for 2026, surpassing analyst expectations.
- Novo Nordisk projects a decline in sales and profits for 2026.
- Lilly's advantage is attributed to more effective injections, early direct-to-consumer sales, and upcoming oral medications.
- Novo's sales decline is due to U.S. pricing and expiring patents in international markets.
- Both companies have entered into agreements to reduce obesity and diabetes drug costs.
- Medicare coverage for obesity treatments starting in July is expected to increase volume for Lilly.
- Lilly's tirzepatide is considered more effective and tolerable than Novo's semaglutide.
- Lilly's tirzepatide has patent protection into the late 2030s, while Novo faces expiring patents.
- Novo has launched an oral obesity drug (Wegovy pill), but Lilly's upcoming oral pill (orforglipron) may offer convenience advantages.
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