The Fed's Main Inflation Measure Will Be Released Wednesday. Here's What to Expect

Data is expected to show ongoing price pressures and consumers who nevertheless continue to spend.

The Fed's Main Inflation Measure Will Be Released Wednesday. Here's What to Expect

TL;DR

  • The primary inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, the personal consumption expenditures price index, is expected to show ongoing price pressures.
  • Core inflation is forecast to be unchanged from July and still well above the Fed's 2% target.
  • Consumers are expected to continue spending, despite faltering sentiment readings.
  • Federal Reserve officials have indicated that further rate hikes may be necessary to bring inflation down to the target.
  • Data revisions from the Bureau of Economic Analysis may lower recent PCE inflation readings but are unlikely to alter the forward-looking outlook.
  • Markets are pricing in a strong probability of an October rate hike, with another potentially to follow.