economy
March 1, 2026
U.S. crude oil set to top $70 a barrel when trading begins on fears of Iran supply disruption
It is unclear who is governing Iran, the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC, after U.S.-Israel strikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
TL;DR
- Crude oil prices are expected to jump due to fears of a U.S.-Iran war causing supply disruptions.
- U.S. and Israel airstrikes reportedly killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders.
- Kalshi markets predict a 79% chance of U.S. crude oil reaching at least $73 per barrel.
- The conflict's impact on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a key concern for the oil market.
- President Trump has agreed to talk with Iran, suggesting a possible path to de-escalation.
- Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted as shipping companies take precautions.
- Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures could spike by $20, according to Rystad Energy.
- Analysts offer varying predictions, with some forecasting modest jumps and others anticipating significant increases ($10-$20) in worst-case scenarios.
- Barclays suggests Brent could hit $100 per barrel due to supply disruption threats.
- The Strait of Hormuz is crucial, with over 14 million barrels per day passing through it, primarily destined for Asian countries.
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