economy
March 8, 2026
Oil prices ‘could breach $100 a barrel within days’ amid supply disruption from Iran war
Warning from Goldman Sachs comes as crude shipping through strait of Hormuz falls further than bank thought
TL;DR
- Goldman Sachs predicts oil prices may breach $100/barrel within days and reach $150/barrel by month's end.
- Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to 10% of normal levels, exceeding initial projections.
- The disruption's impact is estimated to be 17 times larger than the peak hit to Russian production in April 2022.
- Iran has threatened to "set ablaze" any vessel using the trade route, which carries a fifth of the world's oil and LNG.
- Storage facilities in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait are nearing capacity, potentially forcing shutdowns of major oilfields.
- Proposed countermeasures like rerouting via the Red Sea or using US reserves are deemed insufficient to offset the 20 million barrels per day deficit.
- Oil prices have already risen over 50% year-to-date, with significant gains in the past week.
- Qatar's energy minister warned that Gulf energy exporters might shut down production if the conflict continues.
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