economy
December 31, 2025
Op-ed: China won the 2025 battle in Trump's trade war. Here's what comes next
China ended the year of President Trump's aggressive tariffs policy with a trillion-dollar trade surplus. That's an economic and political win for now.
TL;DR
- China's goods trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in November, driven by global demand for its products despite U.S. tariffs.
- While exports to the U.S. declined, China compensated by increasing shipments to other regions like Asia, Mexico, Europe, and the Middle East.
- Domestically, China faces challenges including modest industrial activity, slow retail sales growth, and declining fixed investment, particularly in the property sector.
- The U.S. maintains policies like semiconductor controls and investment screening, while China focuses on advancing frontier technologies such as AI and robotics under strategic control.
- A planned summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in April 2026 could stabilize relations, but potential legislative hardening in the U.S. poses a risk.
- Investment opportunities exist in green technology, industrial automation, advanced manufacturing, and applied AI, but require extreme caution due to strategic controls and geopolitical risks.
- Corporations should prepare for both stability and potential policy shifts, planning for a post-summit hardening of stances.
Continue reading the original article