How the Iran war could start to impact U.S. retail prices

March 13, 2026

TL;DR

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war is disrupting global supply chains for goods like fertilizers, metals, gas, and fuel.
Logistics providers are advising shippers to plan for continued variability, with constrained capacity and fuel cost impacts leading to pricing volatility.
Retailers may see price increases, particularly for grocery items, as supply chains are pushed to their limits.
The war's impact extends beyond shipping, with flight cancellations stranding garment shipments.
Broader economic implications include potential effects on GDP growth and consumer confidence.
Value retailers like Walmart and dollar stores, along with specialty retailers like Costco, may be better positioned to weather the economic impacts.
Discretionary-heavy retailers like Target and Five Below are expected to face headwinds as consumer confidence declines.
Increased oil prices are expected to strain household budgets and impact discretionary spending.

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