economy
February 6, 2026
JPMorgan sees a consumer boost from Trump's tax cuts. This retailer will be the biggest winner
The Wall Street bank said this warehouse club stands to benefit thanks to its broad geographic footprint and member demographics.
TL;DR
- JPMorgan believes Costco will be the top retail beneficiary of President Trump's tax law changes, which could lead to larger tax refunds.
- The tax law changes, impacting tips and overtime pay, are expected to benefit taxpayers through larger refunds in 2025, as withholding tables were not changed.
- Costco's advantage is attributed to its geographic footprint and member demographics, with a focus on mid- to high-end consumers, unlike BJ's Wholesale and Sam's Club which have more low-end exposure.
- JPMorgan estimates the tax changes could increase core retail sales by over 1% in 2026, with a disproportionate impact during the tax refund season.
- Costco's stock is up approximately 15% in 2026, following a significant rally in 2023-2024.
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