‘We’re quietly chirpy’: some Tories glimpse ray of hope, but others see abyss at May elections

March 28, 2026

TL;DR

Conservatives anticipate heavy losses in upcoming local, Scottish, and Welsh elections.
Current national poll ratings for the Conservative party are at 17%, significantly lower than in May 2021.
Some MPs are cautiously optimistic due to Reform's recent dip in polls and Kemi Badenoch's improved personal ratings.
Others describe the party's mood as grim, believing there is mass denial about the severity of their situation.
There is concern that Reform may become the dominant party on the right, making Conservative votes appear wasted.
The departure of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman has been cited as a positive development by some.
Some acknowledge the need to adjust expectations in a new, fragmented political landscape with a five-party system.
There is a fear that the party is heading towards an existential crisis if results do not improve.
Tactical voting and the desire to keep Reform out may provide some support for Conservatives.

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