How a U.S. strike on Iran could affect American drivers and borrowers

February 20, 2026

TL;DR

U.S. military strikes on Iran are being considered, potentially impacting global oil supplies and prices.
Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil supply passes, makes it vulnerable to disruption.
Oil prices could rise towards $100 per barrel if Iranian oil infrastructure is hit and supplies are affected.
A 5% increase in oil prices can add 0.1 percentage points to average inflation in advanced economies.
A reacceleration of inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts.

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