economy
How the Strait of Hormuz reopening could unfold if the U.S.-Iran deal is implemented
Tanker traffic through Hormuz could quickly increase but it is unclear whether transits will approach prewar levels, according to Kpler.
TL;DR
- Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could rise to nearly 50% of prewar levels within a month if a U.S.-Iran deal is implemented.
- Analysts expect a one-time surge of 118 loaded tankers exiting the Persian Gulf, potentially clearing within 15 days.
- Incoming tankers to the Persian Gulf could increase to 12 per day, about 50% of prewar levels, in the first 30 days of the deal.
- Shippers may wait to see how initial transits proceed, considering factors like attacks and mines before reentering.
- Risks to the reopening include differing interpretations of the deal between the U.S. and Iran, and the potential threat of mines.
- The security situation for shipping remains volatile and risky, with concerns about mines and a lack of clear details.