tech
SpaceX has a monopoly
SpaceX has launched approximately 80% or more of the world’s total payload mass to orbit in recent years, especially since 2023. In 2025 alone, the company delivered over 2,200 tons, accounting for more than 80% of global orbital mass, driven by high launch cadence and Starlink missions. SpaceX’s S-1 IPO prospectus explicitly states: “Since 2023, we have launched more than 80% of mass to orbit for the world each year” with a mission success rate above 99%. This dominance highlights SpaceX’s leading position in the global launch market.
TL;DR
- SpaceX has launched over 80% of the world's orbital payload mass since 2023, a significant portion of which was in 2025.
- This dominance grants SpaceX monopolistic pricing power in the launch market.
- Unlike traditional monopolies, SpaceX's innovation is not hindered by its market position, driven by Elon Musk's ambitious goals.
- Economists like McKenzie and Lee argue that temporary monopoly profits are crucial for incentivizing innovation and economic growth.
- Historically, even dominant monopolies like Myspace, Nokia, Xerox, and Kodak have been overthrown by innovation and competition.
- The author believes antitrust actions against SpaceX are unnecessary, as market forces and innovation will naturally disrupt the monopoly over time.