economy
How much further does this Teflon market have to go? Here's what traders say
Traders on prediction markets platform Kalshi place a more than 50% chance that the S&P 500 crosses 8,000 in 2026.
TL;DR
- S&P 500 crossed 7,400 for the first time, with traders on Kalshi giving a 59% chance of reaching 8,000 in 2026.
- The index is up over 16% from its March 30 lows and crossed 7,000 in January.
- RBC raised its 12-month-forward price target for the S&P 500 to 7,900.
- The AI buildout is significantly boosting stocks, driving earnings growth, and increasing private investment.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and potential U.S.-Iran conflict have been largely ignored by the market.
- Some isolated pain in consumer-facing names and the ongoing risk from Iran are potential concerns.
- For Iran to significantly impact the rally, oil prices would likely need to breach their late March highs.