politics
Cuba expert: Trump more likely to tighten screws than send in troops… for now
Welcome to Monday’s edition of Washington Secrets. We’ll be with you all the way through August, even as the rest of the city slows down. Today, we dive into the Trump administration’s thinking on Cuba with someone who knows what they are talking about.
TL;DR
- The U.S. has increased sanctions on Cuban entities and individuals involved in weapons acquisition.
- Daily life in Cuba is characterized by decades of repression, rationing, and human rights abuses, worsened by economic mismanagement and sanctions.
- Despite repression, protests continue, though they face a significant risk of severe government response.
- U.S. policy, historically bipartisan, has shifted between negotiation and maximum pressure, with the Trump administration favoring the latter.
- While military intervention is a possibility, domestic political factors and the lack of a clear roadmap make it less likely in the short term.
- Cuban Americans and Venezuelan Americans strongly support increased U.S. pressure on the Cuban regime.
- The desire of the Cuban people is for freedom, not necessarily sanctions relief.