tech
Bitcoin is overdue for moves of 30% or more, Fundstrat says
Bitcoin could be poised for a move of around 30% or more over the next two months, said Fundstrat.
TL;DR
- Bitcoin's volatility is near historic lows, signaling a potential move of 30% or more in the next two months.
- Historically, periods of low volatility have been followed by larger price swings, with a median absolute move of about 30% over 60 days.
- These past events have resulted in both gains and losses, meaning the signal indicates potential magnitude, not direction.
- A recent rally appears driven by traders closing bearish positions, evident in falling open interest in perpetual futures.
- Rising long-term real yields in the bond market are identified as a potential risk that could break Bitcoin's low-volatility spell.