politics
Putin’s recruiters scramble to avoid second mass mobilisation as Ukraine losses mount
Russia is losing 30,000 casualties a month, and the country’s regions are under pressure to feed the ‘meat-grinder’. Experts say it may not be enough
TL;DR
- Russia is experiencing a shortage of soldiers for the war in Ukraine due to high casualties and declining voluntary recruitment.
- The Kremlin has avoided another mass mobilization since September 2022 by relying on paid contract soldiers.
- Western estimates suggest Russian casualties exceed 30,000 killed and wounded per month.
- Russia is recruiting approximately 1,000 soldiers daily, primarily to replace losses rather than expand offensive capabilities.
- Fears of a new mobilization are circulating among Russians, fueled by rumors and exploited by recruiters to pressure men into signing contracts.
- Coercive recruitment tactics, including detentions, workplace summons, and threats, are being increasingly documented.
- Recruiters are targeting 'socially marginalized' men and expanding recruitment to include convicted prisoners and university students.
- Regional governments are responsible for meeting recruitment targets and are incentivized financially, creating a lucrative recruitment industry.
- Another mass mobilization would carry significant political risks for the Kremlin, potentially disrupting the domestic situation and lowering Putin's approval ratings.
- Analysts believe Moscow is more likely to increase recruitment efforts and coercive tactics before resorting to another mass mobilization.