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Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be milder than normal thanks to El Niño
Forecast came amid warning that US was unprepared for storms with staffing cuts under Trump administration
TL;DR
- US federal scientists predict a below-normal hurricane season in 2026 with 8 to 14 named storms.
- A developing El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific is the primary reason for the milder forecast.
- El Niño is expected to suppress Atlantic storm development but increase activity in the eastern and central Pacific.
- Forecasters anticipate 1 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3-5) and 3 to 6 Category 1 hurricanes in the Atlantic.
- Pacific forecasts indicate above-normal activity, increasing exposure for populations in Mexico, southern California, and Hawaii.
- Experts express concern about US unpreparedness due to staffing cuts at the National Weather Service and NOAA under the Trump administration.
- These cuts have reportedly degraded forecasting capabilities and emergency management services.
- Private forecasting companies predict a near-normal or slightly below-average hurricane season for the US.
- Despite a potentially quieter Atlantic season, global warming contributes to the potential for more intense hurricanes overall.
- Officials emphasize that preparedness remains crucial, regardless of the season's intensity, as 'it only takes one' devastating storm.