economy
Offbeat Wall Street research firm says it sent an analyst to Strait of Hormuz. Here's what they learned
Before the U.S and Israel began their war against Iran, about 20% of the world's oil was shipped through the narrow Strait of Hormuz.
TL;DR
- Citrini Research reportedly sent an analyst to Oman's Musandam Peninsula to observe Strait of Hormuz shipping activity.
- The analyst found that vessel traffic is moving through the strait, with around 15 ships per day recently.
- Citrini claims actual shipping volume is higher than data suggests because many vessels turn off their AIS transponders.
- The firm suggests Iran is selectively allowing ships to pass, creating a 'functional checkpoint' rather than a blockade.
- Citrini expects a prolonged disruption and a permanent risk premium in oil markets, favoring longer-dated crude contracts.