economy
Bettors on Kalshi now see Warsh likely confirmed by mid-May after DOJ drops Powell probe
Bettors on the platform now see an 86% chance that Warsh's nomination is confirmed by the U.S. Senate by May 15.
TL;DR
- Odds for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chairman have surged on prediction markets.
- The increase in odds follows the Department of Justice's decision to drop its inquiry into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
- Bettors on Kalshi now estimate an 86% chance of Warsh's confirmation by the U.S. Senate by May 15.
- Senator Thom Tillis, a key Republican, had indicated that the end of the Powell inquiry was a condition for his support.
- The Senate Banking Committee will vote on Warsh's nomination before it goes to the full Senate.
- Similar high odds are reflected on other prediction platforms like Polymarket.