tech
Three Ways to Think About AI and Jobs
Whether automation will make human workers obsolete depends on more than just how smart the AI is.
TL;DR
- Despite AI advancements in radiology, human radiologists are in higher demand with increased salaries.
- Jobs can be categorized as 'strong bundles' (tasks are interdependent and difficult to separate, like trial lawyers) or 'weak bundles' (tasks are easily separable, like recruiters).
- The Jevons paradox suggests that increased efficiency through automation can lead to lower prices, increased demand, and ultimately, job growth in some sectors (e.g., automobiles, textiles, ATMs, spreadsheets).
- Not all efficiency gains lead to increased demand; for instance, food production became more efficient but farming employment drastically decreased.
- A job's susceptibility to AI also depends on whether AI replaces low-expert skills or enhances high-expert skills.
- Radiology remains a strong bundle job where AI automates some tasks, but remaining tasks require high expertise, and increased demand due to lower costs (Jevons paradox) keeps radiologists employed.
- The long-term impact of AI is hard to predict, as unforeseen technologies can drastically alter entire professions, as seen with the iPhone's impact on banking.