economy
Strait of Hormuz may not fully reopen until second half of 2026, Baker Hughes says
Tanker traffic through the strait remains very low as the U.S. and Iran try to enforce competing blockades during a fragile ceasefire agreement.
TL;DR
- Baker Hughes assumes the Strait of Hormuz may not fully reopen until the second half of 2026.
- This assumption is incorporated into Baker Hughes' financial guidance, projecting the U.S.-Iran conflict to continue through June.
- A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found nearly 80% of oil and gas executives expect the strait to remain closed until August or later.
- Over 80% of surveyed executives believe future disruptions in the strait are likely.
- The closure impacts 10% of global oil volumes and 20% of global LNG supplies.
- Geopolitical risk is now considered a structural reality for oil and gas markets.
- The strait is a critical trade route, with about 20% of global oil supplies passing through it before the conflict.
- Iran has disrupted exports by attacking tankers, causing a major oil supply disruption.
- Tanker traffic remains low, with the U.S. and Iran enforcing competing blockades amid a fragile ceasefire.