AI spending wasn't the biggest engine of U.S. economic growth in 2025, despite popular assumptions
The GDP value of AI is smaller than it might appear given that a lot of high-tech equipment is imported, according to a recent MRB Partners report.
TL;DR
- The popular narrative that AI is the sole engine of the U.S. economy is likely overstated.
- Consumer spending was the most crucial driver of U.S. GDP growth in the past year, with AI-related capital expenditures being the second biggest driver.
- AI's contribution to GDP growth is smaller than often assumed, especially after adjusting for imported high-tech equipment.
- Adjusted for imports, AI-related investments contributed an estimated 40-50 basis points to real GDP growth between Q1 and Q3 2025.
- Investments in software and computers were AI's most important contributions to GDP growth in 2025, not just data centers.
- Even without the AI boom, U.S. GDP growth would have remained decent due to solid personal consumption.
- Categories linked to AI spending accounted for only 15% of quarterly GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 2025, and less than 5% of overall GDP.
- Resilient consumer spending is expected to continue supporting economic growth in 2026.
- Future economic growth is anticipated to be supported by AI investments, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a stabilized unemployment rate.