economy

These charts offer hints on what’s next for market volatility after a stormy March

Following a tumultuous month, traders are seeking signs that the market's character has flipped back to positive.

These charts offer hints on what’s next for market volatility after a stormy March

TL;DR

  • The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spikes when the S&P 500 (SPX) declines, but predicting the end of volatility is challenging.
  • A high frequency of large daily SPX moves, regardless of the VIX level, signals an erratic trading environment unfavorable to bullish patterns and sustainable uptrends.
  • The current environment shows elevated 1% SPX moves in March, drawing comparisons to both the volatile period of 2022 and the recovery in 2025, with price action being the key determinant of future market direction.

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