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The Guardian view on the global baby bust: people are having fewer children – even where they say they want more
Indian fertility has fallen below the rate required for population stability, in further evidence of the unexpectedly rapid decline in births internationally
TL;DR
- Two-thirds of the global population now lives in countries with fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.
- The decline in fertility rates, once characteristic of rich nations, has spread globally, including to countries like India, China, Albania, and Chile.
- Factors contributing to lower fertility include improved child survival rates, increased women's education, and economic/social empowerment.
- Some governments are attempting to reverse fertility decline through financial incentives, taxing contraceptives, and restricting LGBTQ+ rights, with limited success.
- Abortion bans have been shown to negatively impact women's rights, increase mortality rates, and deter women from having wanted children.
- The UN predicts the global population will peak at 10.3 billion in the 2080s, sooner than previously expected.
- Societies must prepare for the challenges of aging populations supported by a smaller workforce, potentially mitigated by improved health, education, and technology.
- Experts suggest focusing on managing demographic changes through policies that support families and potentially attract migrants, rather than attempting to reverse the decline.