economy
'Dean of Valuation' Aswath Damodaran is not buying SpaceX: 'Too richly priced'
The NYU professor said he understands why some people are getting ready to pay up for SpaceX, but he is "more investor than trader."
TL;DR
- Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at New York University, finds SpaceX too richly priced for its upcoming public market debut.
- Damodaran's valuation places SpaceX between $1.25 trillion and $1.35 trillion, lower than the company's target of $1.77 trillion.
- SpaceX's primary businesses are space launches, connectivity (Starlink), and artificial intelligence (xAI).
- The AI business is identified as the biggest wildcard, offering high upside but facing weak unit economics, intense competition, and high capital expenditures.
- Starlink was the primary driver of SpaceX's profitability in 2025, while the AI business saw deteriorating margins due to competition and rising costs.
- Damodaran describes investing in SpaceX at its current valuation as a bet on AI and Elon Musk.
- He notes that while he is not buying now, market perceptions of companies can change, citing past examples like Facebook and Uber.
- Investing in a Musk-run company like SpaceX comes with potential distractions, which Damodaran suggests investors should expect.