economy
Ceasefire changes little for shipping in strait of Hormuz, experts say
Analysts expect only limited increase in shipping as vessels will still need to seek Iranian permission to transit
TL;DR
- Shipping analysts predict no 'mass exodus' of ships through the Strait of Hormuz despite a conditional ceasefire.
- Iran still controls passage and requires ships to seek permission, a requirement unchanged by the agreement.
- Approximately 2,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers have been trapped in the Gulf since the war began.
- Shipowners are unlikely to move vessels until they have certainty about safe passage and required procedures.
- Under Iran's plan, safe passage would be allowed under Iranian military management, continuing a previous traffic control system.
- The plan also allows Iran and Oman to charge transit fees of up to $2 million per ship.
- Seafarers' unions and the UN shipping agency are seeking guarantees of safety and a safe evacuation mechanism.
- Some vessels have used a new northerly maritime route in Iranian waters, which constrains traffic capacity.