economy
Traders on Kalshi indicate that May's jobs report will top Wall Street expectations
Traders on prediction markets are in consensus with Dow Jones estimates that the number of jobs in May will drop from April.
TL;DR
- Kalshi traders expect May job creation to surpass Dow Jones consensus.
- Dow Jones estimates 90,000 jobs added in May, a decrease from April's 115,000.
- Kalshi traders assigned a 56% probability that the May jobs report will exceed the Wall Street forecast.
- Odds of over 100,000 new jobs being added stand at 49%.
- RBC Economics forecasts 99,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.3%.
- The jobs report precedes the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 16-17.
- Dow Jones expects hourly earnings to increase 3.4% annually and 0.3% month-over-month.