economy
Mutually Assured Energy Destruction
Wrecking oil infrastructure is easy; rebuilding it is hard.
TL;DR
- Iran has threatened to attack key oil-and-gas facilities in Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
- Donald Trump threatened to attack Iranian power plants, but extended deadlines and has not yet acted.
- Attacking oil infrastructure is easy due to materials, high pressures, and temperatures.
- Rebuilding specialized refinery equipment can take years due to limited foundries and long delivery times.
- Iran's attacks on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG production are estimated to require three to five years for repairs.
- Attacking Saudi oil production could be economic murder-suicide for Iran, as both rely heavily on oil exports.
- Reconstructing Arab oil fields is more feasible than Iran's, due to sanctions and isolation impacting Iran's facilities.
- The logic of deterrence, not outright victory, has historically guided Iran's military actions.