politics
Trump hails Iran deal that fixes nothing except a problem his war caused
Deal will leave things almost exactly as they were before feckless war of choice started
TL;DR
- A US-Iran deal is set for signing, potentially allowing nuclear talks to resume where they left off.
- The recent conflict has had irreversible consequences, including loss of life and strengthening of Iran's military at the expense of civilian governance.
- Iran's capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz has been demonstrated, while US credibility has been undermined.
- Donald Trump has not achieved stated goals of regime change or nuclear disarmament for Iran.
- The deal includes ambiguities regarding Iran charging tolls for Hormuz passage and the release of $24bn in frozen assets.
- The safety of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz ultimately depends on shipping and insurance companies' assessments.
- Iran and Pakistani brokers insist the deal must stop Israel's war against Hezbollah, but Israeli coalition members signal they may not comply.
- The deal is a political setback for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who promised to eliminate Iran's nuclear program, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
- Trump's relationship with Netanyahu has deteriorated, with Trump reportedly calling Netanyahu a 'difficult guy'.
- Internal US and Iranian politics, as well as the unresolved nuclear issue, pose threats to the fragile agreement.
- Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, including uranium enrichment and stockpiles, are set to resume in Geneva.
- These nuclear talks are essentially revisiting the same issues that were on the table before the war began.
- The postwar Iranian delegation is expected to be a tougher negotiator, leveraging Iran's demonstrated durability and the 'Hormuz option'.
- The interim deal reportedly lacks detailed parameters for future nuclear negotiations and includes arrangements for Iran to receive frozen assets before talks.