economy
Here's what to expect from Friday's release of the April jobs report
The total picture is one of a labor market that, while undoubtedly cooling, is generally stable and resilient despite a number of challenges.
TL;DR
- U.S. payroll growth of less than 100,000 a month is now sufficient to keep unemployment steady and the Federal Reserve at bay.
- April's job count is expected to show a gain of 55,000, which is anemic compared to recent years but enough to keep the jobless rate at 4.3%.
- Despite cooling, the labor market is generally stable and resilient, though overall job gains averaged only 22,000 over the last 12 months, with a net loss excluding healthcare.
- There are significant divergences in wage growth, with top earners seeing 6% after-tax gains while the bottom group saw 1.5%, indicating a net loss for low earners given a 3.5% CPI increase.
- Hiring disparities are also appearing across business sizes, with small businesses experiencing declines.
- Conflicting signs in economic data, with some pointing to stabilization and others to slowing, are causing divisions among Fed policymakers regarding interest rate policy.