U.S. intelligence agencies warn Putin could test NATO by authorizing provocative actions

TL;DR

U.S. intelligence suggests Putin may authorize provocative actions extending onto NATO territory.
Potential actions include hybrid operations, cyberattacks, and other deniable measures.
The goal is likely to test NATO's unity and U.S. response willingness, not to trigger broader conflict.
A drone discovered in Germany is assessed by the U.S. to be of Russian origin.
Concerns are heightened by a pattern of Russian drone incursions, missile crossings, and suspected sabotage across Europe.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned of Russia's expanding use of hybrid tactics.
Russia is reportedly absorbing enormous losses in Ukraine, with recruitment rates unable to keep up.
President Trump has expressed doubts about NATO's Article 5 and criticized allies for defense spending.
The U.S. has sought to shift more defense responsibility to European states.

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